An Australian federal budget isn’t just a spreadsheet of revenues and expenditures for the coming year. It’s a snapshot of human nature—our hopes, fears, and trade-offs, distilled into numbers. The Treasury’s estimates reveal what we value: roads or hospitals, tax breaks or welfare. Its fiscal policy isn’t sterile math; it’s a bet on the future, shaped by the stories we tell ourselves about prosperity and security. Every line item hides a choice, every dollar a debate about who we are and what we’re willing to fight for.
Where Are We Now?
Under the stewardship of the Labor government, with consumer sectors flexing their muscle, Australia carved out a rare achievement: its first budget surplus in over 15 years, a feat notched in 2022/23 and echoed the following year, totalling $38 billion. But the pendulum swung by 2024/25, as an estimated $27.6 billion deficit emerged—not from recklessness, but from a deliberate pivot. The government, attuned to the grind of cost-of-living pressures, rolled out energy rebates and tax cuts to soften the blow. On March 25, the Labor team unveiled a Federal Budget laced with expansive measures, pushing the deficit to a projected $42.1 billion, before it eases to $35.7 billion by 2027, a trajectory sketched in Figure 1. These shortfalls fuel a rising net debt: from $556 billion (19.9% of GDP) in 2024/25 to $768 billion (23.1% of GDP) by 2028/29—a ledger of ambition, necessity, and the weight of governing a nation in flux.
The yearly Australian Federal Budget plays a pivotal role in shaping the investment landscape by influencing economic conditions, regulatory frameworks, and sector-specific opportunities. Each budget outlines tax policies that can alter after-tax returns and compliance costs for investors, impacting personal and business financial planning. The budget’s stance on housing, including initiatives like first-home buyer schemes or foreign investment regulations, can significantly affect property markets and rental yields, which are crucial for real estate investors. Measures aimed at reducing the cost of living, such as energy rebates or healthcare funding, indirectly influence consumer spending patterns and sector performance, potentially benefiting or challenging investors in retail, utilities, and other consumer-facing industries. The budget’s focus on infrastructure development, education, and renewable energy investments highlights growth areas that can present strategic opportunities for investors seeking to capitalise on emerging trends. Economic forecasts, including inflation projections and deficit expectations, provide essential insights for investors to assess market conditions and anticipate potential interest rate movements. Additionally, regulatory changes, such as those affecting superannuation or foreign investment, can alter investment strategies and structures. Therefore, the Federal Budget serves as a critical guide for investors to navigate economic shifts, anticipate regulatory changes, and identify sectoral growth opportunities that can significantly impact their investment decisions and portfolio performance.
How Will Investors Be Impacted by the Current Budget
Building on the current fiscal situation, the shift from surplus to deficit and the projected increase in net debt will have significant implications for Australian investors and the broader population. With the country facing higher inflation and a growing deficit, investors may need to adjust their strategies to navigate this changing economic landscape. The expansionary fiscal policy, while aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures, could potentially exacerbate inflationary trends, impacting real returns across various asset classes. Bond investors might see yields rise as the government increases borrowing to finance the deficit, potentially creating opportunities in fixed-income markets but also signalling higher borrowing costs throughout the economy. Equity investors may need to reassess sector allocations, with government spending priorities potentially boosting industries like healthcare, renewable energy, and infrastructure. The Australian dollar could face downward pressure due to the deficit and debt levels, affecting international investments and import-export dynamics. For the average Australian, while short-term relief measures are welcome, there’s a looming concern about future tax implications and the long-term sustainability of public finances. As the country navigates this period of deficit spending and inflationary pressures, both investors and the public will need to remain vigilant, adapting their financial planning to account for potential market volatility and changing economic conditions.
Those Impacted by 2024-25 Budget
Positively Impacted
Group Affected
Key Measures
Impact
Taxpayers
Personal income tax cuts and higher Medicare levy thresholds to ease cost-of-living pressures
Up to $536 annual tax cut; low-income households exempt from the Medicare levy through 8.5bn in funding, reducing financial strain
Energy Consumers
Extended electricity rebates for households and businesses; $2 billion investment in renewable energy projects
Lower electricity bills by approximately $150 per year; accelerated transition to clean energy sources
Workers
Ban on non-compete clauses for low- and middle-income earners to improve job mobility and competition
Potential 4% wage increase as employees gain more bargaining power and job flexibility
Healthcare
Reduced prescription medicine prices, higher bulk billing incentives for GPs, and funding for new urgent care clinics
More affordable medicines; increased access to free doctor visits, particularly for pensioners and low-income families
Students
20% reduction in HECS/HELP university loan balances; increased school and vocational education funding
$16 billion in total debt reduction; expansion of free TAFE places, making higher education more accessible
First Home Buyers
Expansion of the Help to Buy scheme, allowing eligible buyers to purchase homes with a lower deposit
Increased accessibility to homeownership by reducing upfront costs and mortgage burdens
Aged Care Nurses
Additional government funding to support pay rises in the aged care sector
Improved wages and working conditions for aged care staff, encouraging retention and recruitment
Apprentices
Increased financial incentives for completing training in critical industries, such as construction and healthcare
Up to $10,000 in government subsidies, making vocational training more attractive and accessible
Drinkers
Temporary pause on the indexation of the excise duty on draught beer to support hospitality businesses
Slower increases in beer prices, benefiting both consumers and pubs/bars
Transport
$17.1 billion in infrastructure investments, including road and rail upgrades to improve connectivity
Improved public transport and road networks, reducing congestion and boosting economic activity
Pacific Islands
Increased aid and concessional loans to Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea for economic development and security
Strengthened regional security ties and support for infrastructure and economic growth in the Pacific
Internet Users
$3 billion allocated for NBN upgrades, focusing on improving network speed and reliability in regional areas
Faster, more reliable broadband services, particularly for remote and underserved communities
Negatively Impacted
Group Affected
Key Measures
Impact
Multinationals
Crackdown on corporate tax avoidance through stricter enforcement and closing loopholes
Increased tax compliance, ensuring large corporations pay a fairer share
Consultants
Reduction in government spending on external consultancy services, with a focus on in-house expertise
$4.7 billion in savings redirected to public services, reducing reliance on private consultants
Smokers
Strengthened efforts to disrupt illicit tobacco trade, including harsher penalties and enforcement measures
Increased prices and reduced availability of illegal tobacco products
Supermarkets
Enhanced ACCC investigations into pricing practices and potential anti-competitive behaviour
Potential penalties for supermarkets engaging in price gouging, leading to fairer prices for consumers
Foreign Home Buyers
A two-year ban on purchasing existing residential properties to prioritise housing for local buyers
The Coalition’s budget reply outlines a contrasting vision to Labor’s policies, focusing on immediate cost-of-living relief, energy reforms, reduced migration, and fiscal restraint. Key measures include halving the fuel excise from 50.4¢ to 25¢/L for 12 months to save households approximately $14 per week, with oversight from the ACCC to ensure savings are passed on to consumers. This policy is an alternative to Labor’s per-person $536 a year tax reform that will have a 15-month implementation lag. The Coalition also plans to cut permanent migration by 25%, from 185,000 to 140,000 annually, arguing this will alleviate housing pressures and restore homeownership opportunities. Additionally, they propose banning foreign property purchases for two years and capping foreign student intake.
On energy policy, the Coalition promises to reduce power bills through nuclear energy adoption, fast-tracking gas projects, and establishing an east coast domestic gas reserve to decouple domestic prices from international markets. They criticise Labor’s renewables-only approach as costly and ineffective, claiming their balanced energy mix could save up to $263 billion and deliver 44% lower costs. Their plan includes converting seven coal-fired plants into nuclear reactors by 2035 and follow the trend set by 19 other countries already utilising nuclear power.
The Coalition also pledges fiscal discipline by scrapping Labor’s $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund, $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund and $14 billion green hydrogen subsidies, and aim to reduce public sector jobs by 41,000 to save $7 billion annually. Economic reforms include raising the instant asset write-off for small businesses to $30,000 and incentivising apprenticeships with $12,000 support payments for training.
Healthcare commitments include a $9.4 billion investment into Medicare bulk billing, reducing medicine copayments to $25, and allocating $500 million for women’s health and $400 million for youth mental health services. The Coalition frames Labor’s budget as a re-election strategy rather than sustainable governance and emphasizes their focus on addressing inflationary spending and delivering long-term economic stability.
In summary, the 2025–26 Federal Budget, presented by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, focuses on cost-of-living relief, strengthening Medicare, housing affordability, and economic resilience amid global challenges. Key measures include $1.8 billion in energy bill rebates, $17.1 billion in tax cuts for all taxpayers, and $8.4 billion to expand Medicare bulk billing access. Housing initiatives involve a $33 billion plan to build more homes and a two-year ban on foreign buyers of existing properties. Investments also target education, disaster response, and renewable energy, while the budget projects a growing deficit from $27.6 billion in 2024–25 to $42.1 billion in 2025–26, with net debt rising to $768 billion by 2028–29. The government argues these measures are necessary to ease cost pressures and build long-term economic strength.
The Coalition has criticised the budget as unsustainable and politically motivated, proposing alternative policies such as halving the fuel excise for immediate relief, cutting migration by 25%, and adopting nuclear energy to reduce power bills. They also advocate for fiscal restraint by scrapping major Labor programs like the $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund and reducing public service jobs to save $7 billion annually. While Labor emphasises its focus on helping Australians now and building for the future, the Coalition frames its response as a plan for long-term economic stability and inflation control. This budget debate highlights contrasting visions for addressing Australia’s economic challenges and priorities.
Kurtis Castorina Investment Strategy Analyst, Your Future Strategy
An Australian federal budget isn’t just a spreadsheet of revenues and expenditures for the coming year. It’s a snapshot of human nature—our hopes, fears, and trade-offs, distilled into numbers. The Treasury’s estimates reveal what we value: roads or hospitals, tax breaks or welfare. Its fiscal policy isn’t sterile math; it’s a bet on the future, shaped by the stories we tell ourselves about prosperity and security. Every line item hides a choice, every dollar a debate about who we are and what we’re willing to fight for.
Where Are We Now?
Under the stewardship of the Labor government, with consumer sectors flexing their muscle, Australia carved out a rare achievement: its first budget surplus in over 15 years, a feat notched in 2022/23 and echoed the following year, totalling $38 billion. But the pendulum swung by 2024/25, as an estimated $27.6 billion deficit emerged—not from recklessness, but from a deliberate pivot. The government, attuned to the grind of cost-of-living pressures, rolled out energy rebates and tax cuts to soften the blow. On March 25, the Labor team unveiled a Federal Budget laced with expansive measures, pushing the deficit to a projected $42.1 billion, before it eases to $35.7 billion by 2027, a trajectory sketched in Figure 1. These shortfalls fuel a rising net debt: from $556 billion (19.9% of GDP) in 2024/25 to $768 billion (23.1% of GDP) by 2028/29—a ledger of ambition, necessity, and the weight of governing a nation in flux.
Federal Budget 2025-26 | EY – Australia
Why Does the Budget Matter?
The yearly Australian Federal Budget plays a pivotal role in shaping the investment landscape by influencing economic conditions, regulatory frameworks, and sector-specific opportunities. Each budget outlines tax policies that can alter after-tax returns and compliance costs for investors, impacting personal and business financial planning. The budget’s stance on housing, including initiatives like first-home buyer schemes or foreign investment regulations, can significantly affect property markets and rental yields, which are crucial for real estate investors. Measures aimed at reducing the cost of living, such as energy rebates or healthcare funding, indirectly influence consumer spending patterns and sector performance, potentially benefiting or challenging investors in retail, utilities, and other consumer-facing industries. The budget’s focus on infrastructure development, education, and renewable energy investments highlights growth areas that can present strategic opportunities for investors seeking to capitalise on emerging trends. Economic forecasts, including inflation projections and deficit expectations, provide essential insights for investors to assess market conditions and anticipate potential interest rate movements. Additionally, regulatory changes, such as those affecting superannuation or foreign investment, can alter investment strategies and structures. Therefore, the Federal Budget serves as a critical guide for investors to navigate economic shifts, anticipate regulatory changes, and identify sectoral growth opportunities that can significantly impact their investment decisions and portfolio performance.
How Will Investors Be Impacted by the Current Budget
Building on the current fiscal situation, the shift from surplus to deficit and the projected increase in net debt will have significant implications for Australian investors and the broader population. With the country facing higher inflation and a growing deficit, investors may need to adjust their strategies to navigate this changing economic landscape. The expansionary fiscal policy, while aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures, could potentially exacerbate inflationary trends, impacting real returns across various asset classes. Bond investors might see yields rise as the government increases borrowing to finance the deficit, potentially creating opportunities in fixed-income markets but also signalling higher borrowing costs throughout the economy. Equity investors may need to reassess sector allocations, with government spending priorities potentially boosting industries like healthcare, renewable energy, and infrastructure. The Australian dollar could face downward pressure due to the deficit and debt levels, affecting international investments and import-export dynamics. For the average Australian, while short-term relief measures are welcome, there’s a looming concern about future tax implications and the long-term sustainability of public finances. As the country navigates this period of deficit spending and inflationary pressures, both investors and the public will need to remain vigilant, adapting their financial planning to account for potential market volatility and changing economic conditions.
Those Impacted by 2024-25 Budget
Positively Impacted
Negatively Impacted
Source: Budget 2025: Winners and losers from Jim Chalmers’ fourth budget
Coalition’s Response to the Budget
The Coalition’s budget reply outlines a contrasting vision to Labor’s policies, focusing on immediate cost-of-living relief, energy reforms, reduced migration, and fiscal restraint. Key measures include halving the fuel excise from 50.4¢ to 25¢/L for 12 months to save households approximately $14 per week, with oversight from the ACCC to ensure savings are passed on to consumers. This policy is an alternative to Labor’s per-person $536 a year tax reform that will have a 15-month implementation lag. The Coalition also plans to cut permanent migration by 25%, from 185,000 to 140,000 annually, arguing this will alleviate housing pressures and restore homeownership opportunities. Additionally, they propose banning foreign property purchases for two years and capping foreign student intake.
On energy policy, the Coalition promises to reduce power bills through nuclear energy adoption, fast-tracking gas projects, and establishing an east coast domestic gas reserve to decouple domestic prices from international markets. They criticise Labor’s renewables-only approach as costly and ineffective, claiming their balanced energy mix could save up to $263 billion and deliver 44% lower costs. Their plan includes converting seven coal-fired plants into nuclear reactors by 2035 and follow the trend set by 19 other countries already utilising nuclear power.
The Coalition also pledges fiscal discipline by scrapping Labor’s $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund, $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund and $14 billion green hydrogen subsidies, and aim to reduce public sector jobs by 41,000 to save $7 billion annually. Economic reforms include raising the instant asset write-off for small businesses to $30,000 and incentivising apprenticeships with $12,000 support payments for training.
Healthcare commitments include a $9.4 billion investment into Medicare bulk billing, reducing medicine copayments to $25, and allocating $500 million for women’s health and $400 million for youth mental health services. The Coalition frames Labor’s budget as a re-election strategy rather than sustainable governance and emphasizes their focus on addressing inflationary spending and delivering long-term economic stability.
Budget in Reply – Liberal Party of Australia
The Coalition revealed its vision ahead of the election. Here’s what was in the budget reply | SBS News
Federal budget: Coalition pours petrol on the cost of living debate ahead of the election | SBS News
Summary
In summary, the 2025–26 Federal Budget, presented by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, focuses on cost-of-living relief, strengthening Medicare, housing affordability, and economic resilience amid global challenges. Key measures include $1.8 billion in energy bill rebates, $17.1 billion in tax cuts for all taxpayers, and $8.4 billion to expand Medicare bulk billing access. Housing initiatives involve a $33 billion plan to build more homes and a two-year ban on foreign buyers of existing properties. Investments also target education, disaster response, and renewable energy, while the budget projects a growing deficit from $27.6 billion in 2024–25 to $42.1 billion in 2025–26, with net debt rising to $768 billion by 2028–29. The government argues these measures are necessary to ease cost pressures and build long-term economic strength.
The Coalition has criticised the budget as unsustainable and politically motivated, proposing alternative policies such as halving the fuel excise for immediate relief, cutting migration by 25%, and adopting nuclear energy to reduce power bills. They also advocate for fiscal restraint by scrapping major Labor programs like the $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund and reducing public service jobs to save $7 billion annually. While Labor emphasises its focus on helping Australians now and building for the future, the Coalition frames its response as a plan for long-term economic stability and inflation control. This budget debate highlights contrasting visions for addressing Australia’s economic challenges and priorities.
Kurtis Castorina
Investment Strategy Analyst, Your Future Strategy